Updated 3 months ago
This market resolves "Yes" only if Iran's government, military, or intelligence services explicitly claim responsibility for an attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026. Ambiguous statements implying involvement will not qualify; only direct claims count.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$2000.00 return per $1
If No wins
$1.00 return per $1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran explicitly claims responsibility for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo that occurred on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the Iranian government, military, or intelligence services.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
PM·$15.60M volWill Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
PM·$1.37M volStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
PM·$9.18M volStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
PM·$558.0K volStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PM·$4.95M volWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
PM·$349.5K volUS bank failure by July 31?
PM·$96.0K volWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PM·$38.33M volMegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?
PM·$64.5K volStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PM·$192.6K volWill Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
PM·$434.2K volMegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?
PM·$68.2K vol
