What are the current odds for "Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 3.3% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $247.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 3.3% or No shares at 96.7%. The market has $10.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?

Updated Today

Hamas disarmament represents a linchpin for regional stability efforts, but the militant organization has shown limited willingness to surrender military capabilities. Markets give this outcome just a 4% chance by March 31, 2026, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term breakthroughs in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Current Probability

3.3%-0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$30.30 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1