What are the current odds for "Will France pass a national budget by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 44.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $6.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will France pass a national budget by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 44.5% or No shares at 55.5%. The market has $6.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Updated 2 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Currently 44.5% on Polymarket, with $6,079 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

44.5%+0.02%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.25 return per $1

If No wins

$1.80 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Mar 25, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026