What are the current odds for "Will Democrats win all 'core four' senate races?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 55.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $8.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Democrats win all 'core four' senate races?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 55.0% or No shares at 45.0%. The market has $6.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Nov 3, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Updated 4 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Currently 55.0% on Polymarket, with $8,644 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

55.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.82 return per $1

If No wins

$2.22 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.