What are the current odds for "US takes Panama Canal before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $111.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US takes Panama Canal before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.5% or No shares at 93.5%. The market has $32.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Updated 20 hr ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 6.5% on Polymarket, with $111,585 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

6.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$15.38 return per $1

If No wins

$1.07 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.

An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.