What are the current odds for "US military draft authorized in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $448.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US military draft authorized in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.0% or No shares at 95.0%. The market has $37.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US military draft authorized in 2026?

Updated 28 min ago

This market asks whether Congress will authorize a U.S. military draft by December 31, 2026. Markets currently assign an 8% probability to legislation that activates the Selective Service System or otherwise establishes conscription.

Current Probability

5.0%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$20.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History