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US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by… 32.0% Odds | Polymarket

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US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Polymarketother

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Updated Today

Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high as shipping faces potential threats near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil passages. Markets currently give the US escorting a commercial vessel through the region by April 30 a 45% chance, reflecting uncertainty about regional escalation and maritime security operations.

Current Probability

32.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.13 return per $1

If No wins

$1.47 return per $1

Price History

Market Stats

Open Interest$10.5K

24h Volume$22.8K

Total Volume$180.6K

Liquidity$10.5K

EndsTomorrow

End DateMar 31, 2026

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Kalshi

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2026?

Outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026

Kalshi

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 15, 2026?

Outcome: Before Apr 15, 2026

Kalshi

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026?

Outcome: Before May 1, 2026

Kalshi

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?

Outcome: Before May 15, 2026

Kalshi

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?

Outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026

Kalshi

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?

Outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026