What are the current odds for "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give Up a 89.5% probability. This market is trading on Polymarket with $25.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Up shares at 89.5% or Down shares at 10.5%. The market has $5.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 7 months (Feb 28, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

PolymarketeconomicsMulti-Outcome

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). Currently 89.5% on Polymarket, with $25,394 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

89.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

UpDown

If Up wins

$1.12 return per $1

If Down wins

$9.52 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).

This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.

If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.

Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.

This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).

Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Listed on Polymarket Mar 20, 2026 · Resolves Feb 28, 2027