What are the current odds for "SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 78.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $40.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 78.5% or No shares at 21.5%. The market has $5.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Aug 1, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?

Updated 1 month ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Currently 78.5% on Polymarket, with $40,614 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

78.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.27 return per $1

If No wins

$4.65 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Mar 24, 2026 · Resolves Aug 1, 2026