What are the current odds for "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 8.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $17.44M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 8.5% or No shares at 91.5%. The market has $989.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Updated 1 min ago

This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia at any point before December 31, 2026, including through announced resignation or effective removal from office. Markets currently give this outcome a 9% chance within the specified timeframe.

Current Probability

8.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$11.76 return per $1

If No wins

$1.09 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.