What are the current odds for "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 31.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $240.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 31.5% or No shares at 68.5%. The market has $1.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

Updated 1 month ago

This market tracks whether the CDC identifies a new COVID-19 variant of concern between December 2025 and December 2026. Markets currently give this outcome a 32% probability based on the CDC's official variant classification scheme.

Current Probability

31.5%-0.20%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.17 return per $1

If No wins

$1.46 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

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