What are the current odds for "Natural Disaster in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 30.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $185.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Natural Disaster in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 30.5% or No shares at 69.5%. The market has $14.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Natural Disaster in 2026?

Updated Today

Natural disasters like earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods are inevitable global events, yet markets give only a 31% chance of a major disaster occurring somewhere in 2026. This surprisingly low probability may reflect definitional ambiguity around what qualifies as catastrophic.

Current Probability

30.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.28 return per $1

If No wins

$1.44 return per $1

Price History