Updated 4 weeks ago
This market covers whether the U.S. experiences a major natural disaster in 2026: a Category 5 hurricane landfall, a 10kt+ meteor strike, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake. Traders are pricing the risk at 23%.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$4.35 return per $1
If No wins
$1.30 return per $1
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
View full rulesPrice Changes
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