What are the current odds for "NATO dissolves before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.2% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $112.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "NATO dissolves before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.2% or No shares at 98.8%. The market has $32.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Updated 1 hr ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 1.2% on Polymarket, with $112,628 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

1.2%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$83.33 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.

3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History