Updated Today
The ICE Shooter's continued employment has become a consequential political marker tied to federal immigration enforcement. Markets currently assign just 2% odds they exit by March 31, suggesting stability or minimal immediate pressure from either side.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$222.22 return per $1
If No wins
$1.00 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
PM·$19.10M volWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?
PM·$12.12M volUS forces enter Iran by March 31?
PM·$35.70M volWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
PM·$5.82M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?
PM·$23.08M volLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A
PM·$5.83M volSpurs vs. Clippers
PM·$4.94M volLakers vs. Heat
PM·$4.82M volClippers vs. Pelicans
PM·$4.72M volNetanyahu out by March 31?
PM·$78.85M vol76ers vs. Hornets
PM·$3.85M volLoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B
PM·$4.22M vol
KalshiWill the price of the Bezel Rolex Index be above $12937 at March 31, 2026?
Outcome: Price to Beat: $12,937
KalshiWill the price of the Rolex Submariner Date 41 "Starbucks" 126610LV-0002 be above $14026 at March 31, 2026?
Outcome: Price to Beat: $14,026
KalshiWill the price of the Tudor Black Bay GMT / Bracelet M79830RB-0001 be above $3309 at March 31, 2026?
Outcome: Price to Beat: $3,309
KalshiWill the price of the Rolex Submariner 41 Date 126610LN-0001 be above $13129 at March 31, 2026?
Outcome: Price to Beat: $13,129
KalshiWill the price of the Bezel Cartier Index be above $5729 at March 31, 2026?
Outcome: Price to Beat: $5,729
KalshiWill the price of the Bezel Omega Index be above $5507 at March 31, 2026?
Outcome: Price to Beat: $5,507
