What are the current odds for "Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 25.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $13.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 25.0% or No shares at 75.0%. The market has $5.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

Updated 4 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 25.0% on Polymarket, with $13,248 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

25.0%-0.02%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.33 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History