What are the current odds for "Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $149.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.5% or No shares at 94.5%. The market has $31.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Updated 48 min ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 5.5% on Polymarket, with $148,976 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

5.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$18.18 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.