Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal: Polymarket vs Kalshi

Polymarket and Kalshi are both running a ladder of contracts on the same question: when does shipping through the Strait of Hormuz return to “normal”? It is one of the cleanest cross-platform comparisons we track — and one of the most surprising, because the two venues define normal identically yet price the recovery very differently.

What counts as “normal” — and why 60 isn’t really normal

Both contracts anchor to the exact same measure: the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the strait, as published by IMF PortWatch, reaching 60. (Kalshi’s contract says “above 60”; Polymarket’s says “equal to or above 60” — a one-vessel hair’s-breadth that almost never matters.) Two things make that threshold worth understanding. First, 60 is not the pre-crisis baseline — normal runs ~90–100 ships a day, so the markets treat about two-thirds of normal as “returned to normal.” Second, both resolve the instant the average first touches 60 — a one-touch barrier. They aren’t asking whether traffic is sustainably normal; they’re asking when it first recovers to 60, even for a day. From a handful of transits today, that is roughly a twelve-fold climb.

Why Polymarket and Kalshi disagree — the real story

Here is the surprise: with an identical definition, an identical data source, and the same one-touch mechanic, the two crowds have largely converged; the gap that once separated them has narrowed:

Any divergence here is not a settlement-window artifact and not a definitional gap — both are ruled out above. When present, it reflects a genuine difference between two trader populations: Polymarket’s global, crypto-native base, versus Kalshi’s US-regulated market, which has been the cautious voice throughout — its traders were pricing “not until August or later” back in May.

“By” vs “Before” — small words, real money (but not the reason)

The two ladders also differ in wording: Polymarket lists “by July 15,” Kalshi “Before Jul 15, 2026,” and Kalshi’s contracts settle about a week past their stated deadline. These boundary details — inclusive vs exclusive dates, ≥ vs >, settlement lag — genuinely nudge which contract is “cheaper” on the margin. But here they are a sideshow: worth at most a point or two, nowhere near the double-digit gaps above. The headline divergence is conviction, not contract text.

Sources: IMF PortWatch (transit data) · 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis · CNBC: Kalshi traders on the timeline. Odds update live; underlying transit figures are as of July 1, 2026.