Updated 28m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 12, 2026
The market prices a 62% chance of Hormuz normalization by year-end, but only 5% by July 31, reflecting escalating US-Iran clashes over strait control. As of July 12, Iran has re-closed the waterway after the June ceasefire collapsed, with traffic at 33-35% of pre-war levels and no functioning shipping protocol. The core dispute: Iran claims a permanent regulatory role and transit fees post-MOU; the US and global shipping reject this. The market is effectively pricing near-zero odds of resolution this summer and betting on a major shift by late 2026—either a new deal, a US military success, or Iranian capitulation.
As of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal are: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: 63%, Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: 30%, Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?: 17%, Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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