What are the current odds for "Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $63.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.5% or No shares at 94.5%. The market has $27.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

Updated 4 days ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 5.5% on Polymarket, with $63,117 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

5.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$18.18 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Zohran Mamdani does not take office as the 111th Mayor of New York City, succeeding Eric Adams, as currently scheduled for January 1, 2026, by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes.”

An announcement of Zohran Mamdani's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.