Updated 1 hr ago
This market asks whether President Trump will grant Ghislaine Maxwell a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between July 2025 and the end of 2026. Markets currently give this outcome a 14% probability, with resolution based on official U.S. government sources or credible reporting.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$30.77 return per $1
If No wins
$1.03 return per $1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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