What are the current odds for "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?

As of September 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $4.97M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.5% or No shares at 95.5%. The market has $53.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketcrypto

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Updated 3 hr ago

This market resolves to Yes if any wallet attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto shows an outflow or swap transaction on Arkham's Intel Explorer at any point during 2026. Markets currently give this a 8% chance, suggesting traders expect Satoshi's holdings to remain dormant throughout the year.

Current Probability

4.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.47 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

View full rules

Price History

Market Stats

Open Interest$53.3K

24h Volume$1.1K

Total Volume$4.97M

Liquidity$53.3K

Ends3 months

ResolvesJan 1, 2027

Price Changes

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