What are the current odds for "Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 12.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $176.1K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (Apr 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Q: Where can I trade on "Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 12.5% or No shares at 87.5%. The market has $11.7K in liquidity.

Updated Today

Japan's naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz—critical to global oil trade—remains unlikely by April 30, 2026, though markets assign it a 22% probability. Such a move would signal a dramatic shift in Japan's defense posture and regional alignment amid broader geopolitical tensions.

Current Probability

12.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.14 return per $1