What are the current odds for "Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 34.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $210.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 34.5% or No shares at 65.5%. The market has $24.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketcrypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Updated Today

Bitcoin would need to plunge roughly 60% from current levels to hit $40,000 by year-end 2026, a scenario markets currently rate at 39% probability. This prediction captures investor sentiment about potential cryptocurrency volatility and macroeconomic headwinds over the coming year.

Current Probability

34.5%+0.02%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.90 return per $1

If No wins

$1.53 return per $1