What are the current odds for "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of September 2026, prediction markets give this a 8.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $6.50M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 8.5% or No shares at 91.5%. The market has $406.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketcrypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Updated 1 min ago

Bitcoin could touch $45,000 or lower on Binance's BTC/USDT pair between late November 2025 and year-end 2026. Currently priced at 45% probability, the market tracks intraday volatility across a 13-month window.

Current Probability

8.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

Trade 8.5% on Polymarket

If Yes wins

$11.76 return per $1

If No wins

$1.09 return per $1

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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