What are the current odds for "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 20.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 20.5% or No shares at 79.5%. The market has $1.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?

Updated 2 months ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Currently 20.5% on Polymarket, with $2,811 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

20.5%-0.07%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.88 return per $1

If No wins

$1.26 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms More tech markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched.

The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

View full rules

Listed on Polymarket Jan 5, 2026 · Resolves Jan 1, 2027