Updated Today
Markets are pricing in a 100% probability that the S&P 500 opens directionally on April 8, 2026—though this reflects certainty only about directional movement, not magnitude. Stock market open direction depends on overnight developments and pre-market futures trading.
Current Probability
If Up wins
$1.00 return per $1
If Down wins
$2000.00 return per $1
Price Changes
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8?
PM·$523.6K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 8?
PM·$313.9K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11AM ET
PM·$265.0K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9AM ET
PM·$218.8K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8AM ET
PM·$201.9K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
PM·$194.1K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7PM ET
PM·$188.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5PM ET
PM·$150.1K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
PM·$136.8K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
PM·$131.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2PM ET
PM·$130.8K volBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8PM ET
PM·$128.8K volSame eventS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9?
RelatedS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9?
RelatedDHS Shutdown End Apr 17-20 2026
Outcome: April 17-20
KalshiEconomic Downturn by Jul 2028
Outcome: Yes
PopularNo Change in Fed Rates April 2026
Outcome: No change
