What are the current odds for "Major CEX insolvent in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 7.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $127.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Major CEX insolvent in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 7.0% or No shares at 93.0%. The market has $13.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Updated 3 weeks ago

Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Currently trading at 7.0% on Polymarket, with $127,761 in total trading volume, resolving 5 months.

Current Probability

7.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$14.29 return per $1

If No wins

$1.08 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms Trending markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Price History