What are the current odds for "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $103.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.5% or No shares at 95.5%. The market has $35.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Updated 2 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Currently 4.5% on Polymarket, with $103,895 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

4.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.