What are the current odds for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 11.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.21M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 11.5% or No shares at 88.5%. The market has $419.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,468

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,742,817

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,967,767

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,720,648

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.68MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,468

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,742,817

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,967,767

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,720,648

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.68MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Updated Today

Control of Iran's strategic Persian Gulf oil terminal remains a geopolitical flashpoint. Markets currently give only 13% odds that Kharg Island will be outside Iranian control by March 31, suggesting traders expect Tehran to maintain dominance over this critical energy infrastructure.

Current Probability

11.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.70 return per $1

If No wins

$1.13 return per $1