What are the current odds for "Human moon landing in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.9% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.96M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Human moon landing in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.9% or No shares at 97.2%. The market has $44.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Human moon landing in 2026?

Updated 39 min ago

This market resolves Yes if any human-crewed spacecraft lands on the moon by December 31, 2026. Markets currently assign this outcome just a 3% probability, reflecting the tight timeline for such an ambitious spaceflight milestone.

Current Probability

2.9%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$35.09 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.