Updated Today
French political turmoil could trigger an early election call by June 30, 2026, but markets assign this outcome only 9% probability currently. Any snap election would reshape European politics and likely hinge on major parliamentary crises in the coming months.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$13.33 return per $1
If No wins
$1.08 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
PM·$4.37M volIslanders vs. Senators
PM·$988.1K volSenators vs. Capitals
PM·$795.3K volWill Trump visit China by April 30?
PM·$2.20M volWill Trump visit China by March 31?
PM·$3.49M volKigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Marco Cecchinato
PM·$203.2K volIslanders vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
PM·$189.3K volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
PM·$2.15M volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
PM·$1.02M volTrump out as President by March 31?
PM·$8.07M volMiami Open: Janice Tjen vs Yulia Putintseva
PM·$185.1K volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
PM·$556.8K vol
