What are the current odds for "Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.3% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $39.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.3% or No shares at 97.8%. The market has $26.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketcrypto

Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Updated yesterday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 2.3% on Polymarket, with $39,113 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

2.3%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$44.44 return per $1

If No wins

$1.02 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.