What are the current odds for "Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.7% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $20.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.7% or No shares at 95.3%. The market has $12.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketcrypto

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Updated 3 days ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 4.7% on Polymarket, with $20,235 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

4.7%+0.02%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$21.51 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 9, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026