Updated 3 months ago
If Trump's Executive Order ending birthright citizenship comes into effect for any period after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome: No — none of the listed outcomes occurredon Aug 1, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-06-30
Trump's birthright citizenship executive order was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court on June 30, 2026, in a 6-3 decision that reaffirmed birthright citizenship as guaranteed by the 14th Amendment. The order, signed on January 20, 2025, never came into effect, blocked first by lower courts and then invalidated by Chief Justice John Roberts writing for the majority that children born in the U.S. to undocumented or temporarily present parents are citizens at birth.
Before Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: . These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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