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If NASA or the Department of Defense cancel any of SpaceX's contracts, exclude them from bidding, or Congress passes a law or the President signs Executive Order with anti-SpaceX provisions before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of April 7, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Trump punish SpaceX? are: Before Jul 2025: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Trump punish SpaceX? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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