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If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.8% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of April 5, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in April? are: Above 3.9%: 94%, Above 4.0%: 94%, Above 4.1%: 86%, Above 4.2%: 71%, Above 4.3%: 49%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in April? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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