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If 1) an executive order alters the structure of the judiciary, 2) a bill becomes law that undermines judicial independence, or 3) any federal judges are removed outside of the impeachment process, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 30, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term? are: Before 2029: 21%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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