Next Fed rate hike?
Updated just now
If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 11, 2026
Kalshi prices a 77% probability that the Fed hikes before 2027, reflecting hawkish Fed signaling and August's robust jobs report that shifted markets to roughly two-thirds odds for a 25 bp hike in September. The broader long-dated odds—88% before 2028, 85% before July 2027—show the market expects rate increases eventually despite Chair Warsh's previous dovish reputation, as persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and a tight labor market narrow the path to sustained hold policies.
As of September 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Next Fed rate hike? are: Before 2028: 88%, Before July 2027: 86%, Before 2027: 78%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Next Fed rate hike? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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