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If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q1 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of April 9, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q1 2026? are: Above 0.5%: 82%, Above 1.0%: 66%, Above 1.5%: 45%, Above 2.0%: 20%, Above 2.5%: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q1 2026? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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