Updated 1 month ago
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Fishback in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Thresholds up through 10 resolved YES; 11 and above resolved NO — final value: 10
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-18
James Fishback received 10% of the vote in Florida's Republican Governor primary on August 18, 2026, with 98.6% of precincts reporting, easily exceeding the 1% threshold. This result confirmed what markets had priced at 100% the day before, as pre-election polling consistently showed Fishback in single digits behind frontrunner Byron Donalds, who won the primary with 48% of the vote.
Before Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: At least 10%: 100%, At least 1%: 100%, At least 5%: 100%, At least 3%: 100%, At least 6%: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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