Updated 2 months ago
If ALL of the following occur for Nov 2026: Dem Nominee: James Talarico, GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Talarico vs. Paxton
What happened
Resolved 2026-05-26
James Talarico won the Texas Democratic Senate primary on March 3, 2026, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett with 52.4% of the vote. Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination on May 26, 2026, defeating four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn with 63.8% of the vote in a runoff, aided by a late endorsement from President Donald Trump. Both candidates advanced to the November 3, 2026 general election.
Before 2026 Texas Senate matchup? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Talarico vs. Paxton: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
