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If New Mexico is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 25, 2026, the Kalshi odds for What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? are: New Hampshire: 39%, South Carolina: 30%, Nevada: 15%, Iowa: 6%, North Carolina: 5%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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