Updated 18m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 17, 2026
Polymarket is pricing Pappas at a commanding 82% despite recent polling showing a dead heat: a co/efficient survey from Sept 9-11 found both candidates at 46% support. The market appears to be pricing in structural Democratic advantage in a blue-leaning state where Republicans haven't won a Senate seat since 2010, while polls reflect recent tightening driven by Sununu's personal popularity and Trump's improved standing in New Hampshire. With over six weeks until the November 3 election, betting markets are heavily favoring the incumbent party to hold the seat.
As of October 14, 2026, the Polymarket odds for New Hampshire Senate Election Winner are: Chris Pappas (D): 89%, John E. Sununu (R): 13%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
