Fed rate hike in 2026?Fed Rate Hike
Updated 2m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 12, 2026
Polymarket prices a late-year tightening cycle over an early-summer hold, with October (51%) outpricing July (20%) as the likeliest hike month — a reflection of Warsh's hawkish pivot and sticky inflation above 4% offset by June's weak jobs data that pushed near-term hike odds down. The market consensus is no move in July but eventual tightening if inflation fails to moderate through summer.
As of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Fed Rate Hike are: Fed rate hike in 2026?: 59%, October Meeting: 55%, September Meeting: 49%, July Meeting: 21%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Fed Rate Hike is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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