Updated 2 months ago
Winner: No changeon Jul 29, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-07-29
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, 2026, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The decision aligned with market expectations priced at 74% the day before, as Chair Kevin Warsh navigated elevated inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions including renewed U.S.–Iran conflict that complicated the policy outlook.
Before Fed Decision in July? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: No change: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
