Compare Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? prediction market odds side by side across Kalshi, Polymarket. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 1.3pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $382.1K in combined trading volume across 4 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
50%
Polymarket
KalshiCost: 97¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 2.9pp before fees.
View all arbs| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
B Before January 20, 2029 | - | - | |
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 9% |
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027-over-30-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
| 1.3pp spread |
50% | 2.9pp spread |
30% | 0.8pp spread |
