Polymarket prices Trump leaving office before 2027 at 8%, slightly above Kalshi's "Before 2027" gate at 6%—a modest divergence reflecting residual uncertainty around recent impeachment efforts and the Iran crisis. Both platforms heavily discount early departure (Kalshi's full-term odds at 70%, Polymarket implied ~92%), suggesting trader consensus that completion remains the overwhelming base case despite bipartisan removal calls following April 2026 escalation threats. The gap may reflect Polymarket's lighter recent-crisis pricing versus Kalshi's settled-down expectations.
Analysis written Jul 8, 2026 · odds in the tables below are live
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Will Trump Leave Office Early? prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.1pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $58.30M in combined trading volume across 7 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If Donald Trump leaves office [OUTCOME], then the market resolves to Yes.
If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
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