What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.73M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.1% or No shares at 99.0%. The market has $24.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,755

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,605,373,058

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$481,311,792

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,735,360,079

Polymarket$2.36BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$352.10MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.72MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,755

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,605,373,058

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$481,311,792

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,735,360,079

Polymarket$2.36BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$352.10MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.72MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Updated Today

US military intervention in Venezuela remains a provocative geopolitical scenario amid ongoing authoritarian governance and humanitarian crisis. Markets assign invasion a 1% probability by March 31, reflecting the low likelihood despite periodic diplomatic tensions and opposition rhetoric.

Current Probability

1.1%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$95.24 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1