What are the current odds for "Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 11.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 11.5% or No shares at 88.5%. The market has $30.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 years (Nov 7, 2028). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?

Updated yesterday

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Currently 11.5% on Polymarket, with $1,955 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

11.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.70 return per $1

If No wins

$1.13 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.