What are the current odds for "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 30.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $31.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 30.5% or No shares at 69.5%. The market has $694 in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

Updated 3 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Currently 30.5% on Polymarket, with $31,386 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

30.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.28 return per $1

If No wins

$1.44 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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